Bayesian Analysis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome: The 2003 Hong Kong Epidemic
Identifieur interne : 003156 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 003155; suivant : 003157Bayesian Analysis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome: The 2003 Hong Kong Epidemic
Auteurs : Phenyo E. LekoneSource :
- Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift [ 0323-3847 ] ; 2008.
Abstract
This paper analyzes data arising from a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong in 2003 involving 1755 cases. A discrete time stochastic model that uses a back‐projection approach is proposed. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are developed for estimation of model parameters. The algorithm is further extended to integrate numerically over unobserved variables of the model. Applying the method to SARS data from Hong Kong, a value of 3.88 with a posterior standard deviation of 0.09 was estimated for the basic reproduction number. An estimate of the transmission parameter at the beginning of the epidemic was also obtained as 0.149 with a posterior standard deviation of 0.003. A reduction in the transmission parameter during the course of the epidemic forced the effective reproduction number to cross the threshold value of one, seven days after control interventions were introduced. At the end of the epidemic, the effective reproduction number was as low as 0.001 suggesting that the epidemic was brought under control by the intervention measures introduced. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)
Url:
DOI: 10.1002/bimj.200710431
PubMed: 18615412
PubMed Central: 7161832
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000E40
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000E40
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 000E46
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 001C96
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 001C96
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 001C96
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 003251
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 003156
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Bayesian Analysis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome: The 2003 Hong Kong Epidemic</title><author><name sortKey="Lekone, Phenyo E" sort="Lekone, Phenyo E" uniqKey="Lekone P" first="Phenyo E." last="Lekone">Phenyo E. Lekone</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="a1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">18615412</idno><idno type="pmc">7161832</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7161832</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7161832</idno><idno type="doi">10.1002/bimj.200710431</idno><date when="2008">2008</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000E40</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000E40</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000E40</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000E40</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000E46</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000E46</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001C96</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001C96</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">001C96</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0323-3847:2008:Lekone P:bayesian:analysis:of</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">003251</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">003156</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">003156</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Bayesian Analysis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome: The 2003 Hong Kong Epidemic</title><author><name sortKey="Lekone, Phenyo E" sort="Lekone, Phenyo E" uniqKey="Lekone P" first="Phenyo E." last="Lekone">Phenyo E. Lekone</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="a1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift</title><idno type="ISSN">0323-3847</idno><idno type="eISSN">1521-4036</idno><imprint><date when="2008">2008</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Abstract</title><p>This paper analyzes data arising from a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong in 2003 involving 1755 cases. A discrete time stochastic model that uses a back‐projection approach is proposed. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are developed for estimation of model parameters. The algorithm is further extended to integrate numerically over unobserved variables of the model. Applying the method to SARS data from Hong Kong, a value of 3.88 with a posterior standard deviation of 0.09 was estimated for the basic reproduction number. An estimate of the transmission parameter at the beginning of the epidemic was also obtained as 0.149 with a posterior standard deviation of 0.003. A reduction in the transmission parameter during the course of the epidemic forced the effective reproduction number to cross the threshold value of one, seven days after control interventions were introduced. At the end of the epidemic, the effective reproduction number was as low as 0.001 suggesting that the epidemic was brought under control by the intervention measures introduced. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Lekone, Phenyo E" sort="Lekone, Phenyo E" uniqKey="Lekone P" first="Phenyo E." last="Lekone">Phenyo E. Lekone</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/SrasV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 003156 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 003156 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= SrasV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= PMC:7161832
|texte= Bayesian Analysis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome: The 2003 Hong Kong Epidemic
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:18615412" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a SrasV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |